U.S. payroll momentum
+50.7k
average monthly change, three months
Observed September 2026 · FRED / BLS
Executive pulse
Mechanical classifications based on documented direction rules. Context-dependent indicators are not scored, and these labels are not forecasts.
Select a card to see the indicators behind the classification.
Growth / Business Cycle
Mixed / Stable1 improving · 1 stable · 1 deterioratingBalanced score: industrial production offsets durable-goods deterioration; the Sahm indicator is within its neutral band.View contributing indicators
Growth / Business Cycle
Mixed / StableManufacturers’ new orders: durable goodsDeterioratingObserved August 2026 · $338.5 billion latest; 5.6% three-month annualized change; 8.4% year over year
Real-time Sahm Rule indicatorStableObserved September 2026 · level 0.00; +0.07 from the previous month; below the 0.20 neutral-band ceiling and well below the 0.50 recession threshold
Industrial production indexImprovingObserved August 2026 · index 103.07; +1.7% three-month annualized; +1.4% year over year
Labor Market
Mixed / Stable2 improving · 0 stable · 1 deterioratingWeighted score: 0.00. The unemployment rate receives twice the weight of each other scored labor indicator.1 context-dependent indicator shown separatelyView contributing indicators
Labor Market
Mixed / StableInitial unemployment claimsImprovingThrough September 26, 2026 · 200,000 four-week average; 12.4% below a year earlier
Total nonfarm payroll employmentImprovingObserved September 2026 · average monthly change of +50,700 over three months
Civilian unemployment rateDeterioratingObserved September 2026 · 4.2% latest; 4.13% three-month average · 2× category weight
Job openings: total nonfarmContextObserved August 2026 · 7.20 million three-month average; direction can reflect labor demand or easing recruitment pressure
Inflation / Cost Pressure
Deteriorating0 improving · 0 stable · 2 deteriorating4 context-dependent indicators shown separatelyView contributing indicators
Inflation / Cost Pressure
DeterioratingCore consumer price inflationDeteriorating2.8% year over year
Core PCE price inflationDeteriorating3.0% year over year
Headline CPI, headline PCE, hourly earnings, and employment costsContextDisplayed for interpretation but excluded from the directional score
Interest Rates & Credit
Deteriorating1 improving · 1 stable · 5 deterioratingView contributing indicators
Interest Rates & Credit
Deteriorating10-year minus 2-year Treasury spreadImprovingObserved October 6, 2026 · +0.48 percentage point; +15 basis points over four weeks
Effective federal funds rateStableObserved October 5, 2026 · 3.88% week-end level
Secured Overnight Financing RateDeterioratingObserved October 5, 2026 · 3.89% week-end level; +27 basis points over four weeks
U.S. high-yield option-adjusted spreadDeterioratingObserved October 5, 2026 · 3.12 percentage points; +47 basis points over four weeks
10-year minus 3-month Treasury spreadDeterioratingObserved October 6, 2026 · +1.06 percentage points; down 3 basis points from the prior observation and up 17 basis points over four weeks
Adjusted National Financial Conditions IndexDeterioratingObserved September 25, 2026 · -0.574; +0.014 over four weeks (a rise indicates less-accommodative conditions)
National Financial Conditions IndexDeterioratingObserved September 25, 2026 · -0.548; +0.011 over four weeks (a rise indicates tighter conditions)
Housing / Real Estate
Deteriorating1 improving · 0 stable · 2 deterioratingView contributing indicators
Housing / Real Estate
DeterioratingCommercial real-estate loan delinquencyImproving1.53%; essentially unchanged quarter over quarter
30-year mortgage rateDeteriorating7.28%; up 0.57 percentage point over four weeks
U.S. residential building permitsDeteriorating1.403 million three-month average
Ohio & Central Ohio
Improving8 improving · 0 stable · 0 deteriorating1 context-dependent indicator shown separatelyView contributing indicators
Ohio & Central Ohio
ImprovingOhio total nonfarm payroll employmentImprovingObserved August 2026 · +2,200 average monthly change over three months; +0.2% year over year
Ohio unemployment rateImprovingObserved August 2026 · 3.3% latest; 3.43% three-month average; down 0.4 percentage point over three months
Ohio initial unemployment claimsImprovingThrough September 26, 2026 · 4,281 four-week average; 3.6% below a year earlier
Ohio state economic activityImprovingObserved August 2026 · +0.3% over one month; +0.9% over three months
Ohio real GDPImprovingObserved second quarter 2026 · +2.0% quarter-over-quarter annualized; +1.9% year over year
Ohio total personal incomeImprovingObserved second quarter 2026 · +5.6% quarter-over-quarter annualized; +4.0% year over year
Columbus MSA payroll employmentImprovingObserved August 2026 · 1.193 million jobs; +1,100 average monthly change over three months
Columbus MSA unemployment rateImprovingObserved August 2026 · 3.1% latest; 3.13% three-month average
Ohio residential building permitsContextObserved August 2026 · 2,531 residential units, three-month average; shown as development context rather than scored direction
What changed since last month
This October 2026 release establishes the comparison baseline. There is no prior-month directional-classification set to compare; future editions will identify indicators that moved between Improving, Stable, Deteriorating, or Context classifications.
Baseline edition · no prior-month comparisonEconomic snapshot
Headline measures from the verified October 6 data run. Each card states its own measurement window.
U.S. unemployment rate
4.2%
3-month average: 4.13%
Observed September 2026 · FRED / BLS
Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation
3.0%
year-over-year change
Observed August 2026 · FRED / BEA
Effective federal funds rate
3.88%
current policy-rate context
Observed October 5, 2026 · FRED
Leading conditions
These measures can provide early evidence of changing momentum, but none should be interpreted as a stand-alone forecast.
U.S. composite leading indicator
100.96
+0.25 over three months
OECD trend-restored index. A reading above 100 with a rising trend indicates above-trend momentum.
Observed August 2026 · FRED / OECD
Initial unemployment claims
200k
four-week average · 12.4% below a year earlier
Claims remain a timely signal of broad labor-market deterioration or resilience.
Through September 26, 2026 · FRED / U.S. DOL
10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread
+1.06 pp
17 basis points wider over four weeks
A positive spread reduces the classic inversion warning, though the direction and broader credit environment still matter.
Observed October 6, 2026 · FRED
Ohio and Central Ohio
Statewide measures are paired with Columbus MSA data as the most consistently available monthly proxy for Central Ohio.
Ohio statewide conditions
Employment, output, household income, claims, and construction indicators.
3.3%unemployment rate
August 2026
August 2026
+2.2kaverage monthly payroll change
three months
three months
4,281initial claims
four-week average
four-week average
State economic activity+0.3% monthly
Real GDP+2.0% annualized
Total personal income+5.6% annualized
Residential units permitted2,531 three-month average
Ohio’s current indicators are generally constructive, although monthly payroll growth remains modest and housing activity should be interpreted alongside interest rates and local conditions.
Sources: unemployment · payrolls · claims · activity · GDP · income
Central Ohio proxy — Columbus MSA
The metropolitan area is used because a standardized “Central Ohio” aggregate is not published consistently across major monthly economic releases.
1.193Mnonfarm payroll employment
August 2026
August 2026
+1.1kaverage monthly payroll change
three months
three months
3.1%unemployment rate
August 2026
August 2026
Payroll change, May–August+3.2k
Three-month unemployment average3.13%
Latest release datesSept. 18–30, 2026
Central Ohio continues to show labor-market resilience: Columbus payrolls rose over the latest three-month window while unemployment remained near 3.1%.
Sources: Columbus payrolls · Columbus unemployment
Regional intelligence
Qualitative evidence from businesses and community contacts across the Federal Reserve’s Fourth District.
Federal Reserve Beige Book — Fourth District
September 2, 2026 · Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and northern West Virginia
Open interpretation ▾
Federal Reserve Beige Book — Fourth District
September 2, 2026 · Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and northern West Virginia
What regional contacts reported
- Business activity grew modestly, and contacts expected moderate growth in the months ahead.
- Employment increased slightly while wage pressures remained moderate.
- Nonlabor input-cost pressures remained robust.
- Consumer spending declined modestly for a fourth consecutive reporting period.
- Transportation and childcare remained barriers to employment and training for lower-income communities.
Business interpretation
The regional picture remains positive but restrained. Firms should distinguish modest activity growth from stronger expansion and continue monitoring consumer pressure, labor availability, and input costs.
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland · qualitative evidence, not a statistical estimate
Indicator explorer
Selected national, Ohio, and Central Ohio measures for business and policy review.
Methodology and limitations
- Source dates vary because daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly indicators are released on different schedules.
- Category scores assign +1 to Improving, 0 to Stable, and −1 to Deteriorating. A net score of +0.25 or higher is Improving, −0.25 or lower is Deteriorating, and scores between those bounds are Mixed / Stable. Context indicators are excluded.
- Within Labor Market, the civilian unemployment rate receives twice the weight of initial claims and payroll employment. With the October readings, the weighted category score is 0.00. If a future weighted result is Improving while unemployment itself is Deteriorating, an inline divergence caveat will appear beneath the category label.
- The Sahm Rule indicator uses a neutral band: when its level is below 0.20 and a month-to-month increase is less than 0.10, it is Stable rather than Deteriorating. The 0.50 recession threshold remains the key level for interpretation.
- Growth / Business Cycle now scores three direct measures: durable-goods new orders, the real-time Sahm Rule indicator, and monthly industrial production.
- Columbus MSA is used as a transparent Central Ohio proxy. It is not identical to every institutional definition of the Central Ohio region.
- Leading measures, market indicators, and survey evidence are informative but are not forecasts.
- All data are subject to revision. Users should follow the linked official sources before making consequential decisions.